Just 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the source of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
